Gavin’s Gaily Gigest

Following I Want A Referendum’s um… interesting poll results, the Liberal Democrats have done some polling of their own* which shows voters would prefer, by 2:1, to have a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, rather than on the narrower issue of the Lisbon Treaty. Or at least, that’s the way Cowley Street is spinning it.

Beyond this spin however, are some interesting raw numbers: 38% support a referendum on the EU, 18% on the Lisbon Treaty, which still leaves a massive 44% not agreeing with either proposition. This 44% is broken down into 10% that don’t want a referendum at all, 8% that want both plebiscites and over a quarter, 26%, who simply don’t know. If both the Conservative and Liberal Democrat leadership are honest with themselves, a significant proportion of the voting public just aren’t behind them on the referendum question**, let alone what form it should take and whilst 38% might be an acceptable figure from which to form a government, it’s hardly overwhelming public support for a significant departure from constitutional practice (i.e. the holding of a referendum on a matter usually reserved for Parliament).

I’m still in favour of a referendum on the EU as a whole (and Lisbon as a proxy vote if that’s the best we can get), but these figures show that in the future we should be careful with our “what the people want” rhetoric.

* Insert obvious Lembit Opik or Simon Hughes joke here.

** Although of course over half are.